Decision Calculators

Different lenses for evaluating uncertain outcomes

When comparing options with different risks and rewards, intuition often fails us. A "safe" choice isn't always best, and a risky bet isn't always foolish. What matters is the expected value: the probability-weighted outcome across all scenarios.

This calculator models both upside (what you gain if it works) and downside (what happens if it doesn't). A startup might offer huge upside but leave you in debt if it fails. A stable job has lower ceiling but a soft landing if things change. Enter your best estimates and see which option actually makes sense.

Name

If it works out

If it doesn't

Soft landing

Chance of success

95%

Near certain

Expected Value Best

$118,000

95% × $120k + 5% × $80k

Name

If it works out

If it doesn't

Loss scenario (debt, sunk costs)

Chance of success

40%

Unlikely

Expected Value

$88,000

40% × $250k + 60% × $-20k

Analysis

Based on expected value, Safe Option is your best option at $118,000.

EV = (Upside × Probability) + (Downside × (1 - Probability)). This accounts for both what you gain if things work out and what happens if they don't.